Whatever the C Voter exit poll figures for the Jammu and Kashmir Assembly elections 2024 are indicating, it is not at all necessary that the coalition that is seen forming the government will ultimately come to power.
In politics, the one who has power has many tricks – and even if iron keeps on crossing each other, but power is a magnet towards which iron keeps getting drawn – we will have to wait a little, we may see a ‘game’ like Haryana of 2019 in Jammu and Kashmir too.
It is quite possible that the role that JJP leader Dushyant Chautala played in Haryana in 2019, PDP leader Mehbooba Mufti can also be seen in the same role – who says, in politics, old love does not say Zindabad.
Situation in Jammu and Kashmir
According to the exit polls, BJP is expected to get 27-32 seats this time, which could be more than the 25 seats it got last time i.e. in 2014. Remember that at that time BJP and PDP had formed a coalition government. First of all, in such a situation, BJP has a claim on the post of Chief Minister this time, but if Mehbooba Mufti bargains hard then things could work out again.
Last time PDP managed to win 28 seats, but this time it seems it will get only 6 to 12 seats. Consider it a direct loss of at least 16-22 seats.
Similarly, other parties are expected to get 6-8 seats this time – however, while looking at the figures comparatively, it should also be kept in mind that these elections are taking place after delimitation.
Talking about National Conference and Congress, this time they seem to be getting double seats, in 2014, National Conference and Congress together got a total of 24 seats, while this time in the exit poll, they are likely to get 40-48 seats.
The way BJP has decided to nominate 5 MLAs in a hurry, it can be clearly understood that it has already started the exercise of forming the government.
According to a report, on the recommendation of the Union Home Ministry, Lieutenant Governor Manoj Sinha will nominate five members for the Jammu and Kashmir Assembly. This process will be adopted for the first time after the amendment in the Jammu and Kashmir Reorganization Act, 2019.
After the nomination of 5 members by the Lieutenant Governor, the number of members in the Jammu and Kashmir Assembly will increase to 95 – and due to this the magic number of majority to form the government will become 48.
BJP far from majority, close to power
BJP, which claimed and promised to give the people of Jammu and Kashmir their due rights, is expected to get only 27 to 32 seats – and after the nomination of MLAs by the Lieutenant Governor, this figure is going to reach 37 directly.
Now if Mehbooba Mufti’s party PDP is getting 6-12 seats, and the remaining regional parties and independents are expected to get 6 to 11 seats, then to get the majority, BJP will just have to appease Mehbooba Mufti and independents.
If you see, all the independents have entered the fray against INDIA Block and BJP, and will be easily drawn in by seeing the attitude of the ruling party. The history of politics is a witness to this.
If BJP is in a position to form the government in Jammu and Kashmir, then it will first approach PDP. It may be difficult for PDP to accept BJP’s offer because it has a very bad experience of running a coalition government once.
Decisions in politics are taken with the mind, not the heart. The way PDP is moving towards the margins by staying out of the alliance in the assembly elections, it has no better option than BJP to return to the mainstream.
If PDP decides to go ahead with the Gupkar conference again, then BJP will not be able to do anything about the independents, even if more than 10 independent MLAs get elected – but Omar Abdullah and Rahul Gandhi are not going to give the status that PDP can get by joining hands with BJP.
And even if the National Conference-led alliance manages to secure 48 seats, even after getting the majority, the government will be formed on a razor’s edge. Because if even a single MLA switches sides, the boat will start to wobble.
On the other hand, if BJP manages to convince PDP to form government with them again, then Omar Abdullah will be ‘played’. And this seems to be a strong possibility – because those who are not with the Abdullah family can go against them completely, i.e. with BJP.
