Jerusalem. Israel’s rapid attack on Lebanon and Iran’s missile attack in response to it have increased the risk of a major war in the entire Middle East.
Despite diplomatic efforts to calm tensions, incidents of violence are increasing in both countries. United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has also warned of dire consequences of rising tensions.
Meanwhile, news agency AFP has spoken to several analysts to assess what might happen next…
Will Israel retaliate?
- Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said after Iran’s missile attack that Iran has made a big mistake and it will have to pay the price for it.
- David Khalfa, a Middle East expert at the Paris-based think-tank Jean-Jaures Foundation, said Israel had no choice but to respond to the Iranian attack because Iran had launched an attack on a large scale this time.
- This was the second time Iran has directly attacked Israel. In April, Israel retaliated after an attack by about 300 drones and missiles destroyed an Iranian air defense system.
- According to analysts, this time Israel’s response is expected to be on a much larger scale.
- Danny Citrinowicz, an Iran expert at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) in Tel Aviv, said Israelis are celebrating the Jewish New Year this week, making a retaliatory strike unlikely. But Israel is not going to wait long.
What options does Israel have?
- According to David Khalfa, after the Iranian attack, Israeli officials were in favor of uprooting the Iranian regime and wanted to launch a decisive strike.
- Even former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett was one of the first to call for an attack on Iranian nuclear sites, which Israel sees as an existential threat.
- However, the most sensitive nuclear weapons are believed to be placed at great depths, where Israel would probably be unable to attack.
- According to experts and Israeli media reports, Israel could also attack through other means, including targeted killings, attacks on Iranian industrial sites or cyber attacks.
- On the other hand, US President Joe Biden has talked about possible attacks on Iranian oil plants, due to which crude oil prices have also surged.
Are Iran and Israel ready for war?
According to Danny Citrinowicz, Iran expert at INSS, Iran is already planning to fight a war this time. It knows that Israel will attack and it is also ready to retaliate this time.
Sina Tousi, a senior fellow at the Center for International Policy in Washington, said at the moment it all depends on Israel’s response, whether it turns into a regional war or not.